Have you become an amateur weather forecaster?

AutoCadillac · 03-29-06, 07:28

The more fanatical I become about my car's appearance, the more anal I am about trying to figure out the weather forecast.

The default channel on my TiVo is The Weather Channel.

I keep a tally on each of the local stations and the percentage of times their forecasts are accurate.

My wife is learning to schedule weekend outings when the temperature is going be below 50 and there is a high probability of rain.

I know if the rain comes from the South, I won't have much spotting. But, if the front is from the North, the car will look like it has skin cancer after the rain. If it is from the West, then it will spot if there have been wild fires in Texas.

The neigbors know (1) it is going to freeze if they see me putting the water hose in the basement, (2) if I put up the shade canopy, we are going to have clear skies for the rest of the weekend, and (3) if I don't go to work on Friday morning, the forecast if great for a 3 day weekend.

Now, here is the problem. I can take this Friday off but The Weather channel says a 60% probabiligy of rain. I don't want to burn a vacation day if it is going to rainl. What should I do?

ET Awful · 03-29-06, 07:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by AutoCadillac

What should I do?

Seek professional help

truzoom · 03-29-06, 07:34

Take the day off and clean up the interior

I've become more aware of the weather after getting into detailing. I usually look at the 10-day forecast to see what might be coming in.. Lots of scattered thuderstorms next week for me

a.k.a. Patrick · 03-29-06, 09:31

LMAO..........Im a weather freak myself.....I have my own weather station at home, and love the rain and anything weather related that causes mayhem. Now understand, in Calif., mayhem consists of hi-wind, & mudslides, and what we call "heavy rain". Heavy rain in So Cal is about equal to a mid west brief afternoon thunderstorm. But nonetheless, I enjoy weather phenomena.
The thing that cracks me up is, people *itch when its too hot, above 90 (for me anything over 70 is too hot), and they *itch when its too cold, under 50 (for me, under 30) No one is ever happy in Ca.....Bring me 4 seasons I say!!!
So, now that Ive jacked your thread........Auto, let me throw this your way, because theres different interpretation of what "chance of precipitation" is.....
Is there a 100% chance that it will rain over 60% of the forecast area, or 60% chance that it will rain over 100% of the forecast area...........LOL

AutoCadillac · 03-29-06, 09:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by a.k.a. Patrick

Auto, let me throw this your way, because theres different interpretation of what "chance of precipitation" is.....
Is there a 100% chance that it will rain over 60% of the forecast area, or 60% chance that it will rain over 100% of the forecast area...........LOL

I've heard TV weather people try to explain what they mean by that many times.

Psst. To me they are just trying to say they weren't wrong when they really are.

White95Max · 03-29-06, 10:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by AutoCadillac

I know if the rain comes from the South, I won't have much spotting. But, if the front is from the North, the car will look like it has skin cancer after the rain. If it is from the West, then it will spot if there have been wild fires in Texas.

Hang on a second there - let me explain how raindrops form.

Water vapor in the air cannot condense into raindrops without condensation nuclei in the air. These nuclei can be particles of pollution, dust, salt (near oceans), or other things. Each condensation nuclei presents an opportunity for a tiny droplet of water to form around it. It takes millions or billions of these nuclei (each enclosed by a tiny water droplet) to form a single raindrop heavy enough to fall to the ground.
What does this have to do with anything you might ask? Well once that raindrop falls on your car and evaporates, you're left with all those tiny particles (condensation nuclei) on your car. That's where those dirty spots come from.

To answer your original question, I've been fascinated with weather for many many years. I've taken two college meteorology/climatology courses and I've completed a National Weather Service "Severe Weather Spotter" training course. I'm pretty good at telling when a storm is approaching, and that's often helpful when I'm kayaking on a large body of water. It's always nice to give myself a little heads-up to get the hell off the water!

AutoCadillac · 03-29-06, 10:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by White95Max

condensation nuclei

And that is where you lost me!

See, I'd like to believe the reason I get spots when the rain come from the north is that it is a more industrial part of the country. If that isn't true, then

I'm just too old to learn new

a.k.a. Patrick · 03-29-06, 10:18

Paul, when you can forecast a Rogue wave, come see me..............I have this little corner in my office reserved for you.....

White95Max · 03-29-06, 10:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by a.k.a. Patrick

Paul, when you can forecast a Rogue wave, come see me..............I have this little corner in my office reserved for you.....

The editor's corner? I can be a website designer and weather forecaster in one...

White95Max · 03-29-06, 10:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by AutoCadillac

And that is where you lost me!

See, I'd like to believe the reason I get spots when the rain come from the north is that it is a more industrial part of the country. If that isn't true, then

I'm just too old to learn new

It could be that the condensation nuclei from the north are dark pollution particles, while the southern air masses bring more dust. Darker particles may lead to more visible spots.

PrinzII · 03-29-06, 12:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by a.k.a. Patrick

LMAO..........Im a weather freak myself.....I have my own weather station at home, and love the rain and anything weather related that causes mayhem. Now understand, in Calif., mayhem consists of hi-wind, & mudslides, and what we call "heavy rain". Heavy rain in So Cal is about equal to a mid west brief afternoon thunderstorm. But nonetheless, I enjoy weather phenomena.
The thing that cracks me up is, people *itch when its too hot, above 90 (for me anything over 70 is too hot), and they *itch when its too cold, under 50 (for me, under 30) No one is ever happy in Ca.....Bring me 4 seasons I say!!!
So, now that Ive jacked your thread........Auto, let me throw this your way, because theres different interpretation of what "chance of precipitation" is.....
Is there a 100% chance that it will rain over 60% of the forecast area, or 60% chance that it will rain over 100% of the forecast area...........LOL

In Chicago, meteorological mayhem can come in the form of high winds, torrential rains, hellacious heat (e.g. 1988, 1995), Severe Thunderstorms, snowstorms/blizzards, subzero temperatures, Flooding, and the occasional tornado (Outlying counties, mostly. Last twister to run through the City of Chicago was in 1966).

Scottwax · 03-29-06, 03:30

I was very interested in meteorology when I was younger, I even thought about a career in it for a while. Ended up more interested in writing and photography.

Now I just have evil thoughts when they blow the forecast and either my customer's freshly detailed cars get trashed 30 minutes after I finish or they cancel because of forecast rain that didn't materialize.